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MOSAIC

Country intelligence page

Somalia SOM

Operation Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring at Admin 1. Every comparison below is confined to this operation, because operations differ in geographic scope, cadence and method and are not additive.

Present IDPs, latest round
3,262,080
Round 3, 30 Sept 2024
Baseline round
3,451,434
Round 2, 31 Jan 2024
Absolute changeMOSAIC-derived
-189,354
Difference in present IDPs between the two rounds
Displacement momentumMOSAIC-derived
-5.5%
Relatively stable
Assessment recency
704d
Latest report older than 365 days
Data confidenceMOSAIC-derived
67
moderate confidence in comparability, out of 100

What changed?MOSAIC-derived

Comparing round 3 (30 Sept 2024) with round 2 (31 Jan 2024) inside the Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring operation. Thresholds are MOSAIC monitoring settings, not IOM categories.

Areas at or above +5 per cent momentum

Areas in Somalia ranked by threshold crossings between the two most recent comparable DTM rounds
AreaLatestBaselineChangeMomentumComparabilityAnalysis
Awdal29,31014,620+14,690+100.5%Comparable
Galgaduud98,78654,693+44,093+80.6%Comparable
Bay774,374592,361+182,013+30.7%Comparable
Bari116,56099,690+16,870+16.9%Comparable
Nugaal64,73057,924+6,806+11.7%Comparable
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
31 Jan 2024 to 30 Sept 2024
Assessment round
Round 3 compared with round 2
Retrieved
2026-09-04T01:34:17.756Z
Calculation
Rows are summed to a present-IDP figure per area and round, then the latest round is compared with the preceding round of the same operation. Areas present in only one of the two rounds are reported as such and are never treated as zero.

Known limitations

  • An area that disappears between rounds may have ceased to be assessed rather than ceased to host displacement.
  • A newly reported area may be newly affected or newly assessed. The API does not distinguish between these.
  • Threshold bands are MOSAIC monitoring settings and are not calibrated to this country's assessment cadence.
Displacement Momentum is the proportional change in present IDP individuals between an administrative unit's latest comparable DTM assessment round and the preceding round within the same DTM operation. Bands are MOSAIC-defined monitoring thresholds, not IOM classifications. A momentum value is not computed where a baseline is missing or zero.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

National displacement timeline

Present IDPs by assessment round within the Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring operation. Breaks in the line mark non-consecutive round numbers, where an intervening round exists that this series does not include.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
2021-03-30 to 2024-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Present IDP figures are summed across all disaggregated source rows for each area, then across areas, for every round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Figures may be estimates derived from key informants and secondary sources rather than exact enumeration.
  • Assessment coverage and cadence vary by country and operation, so cross-country comparison of change rates is not supported.
  • A change in a recorded figure may reflect population movement, altered assessment coverage, changed access, or enumeration method, and the API does not distinguish between these.
  • The public API exposes aggregated non-sensitive figures only, and does not carry the full detail of the underlying DTM datasets.

Admin 1 ranking, latest round

Areas ranked by present IDPs reported in the latest round. Bar length is proportional to the largest area.

  1. Banadir1,058,177
    -1.4%
  2. Bay774,374
    +30.7%
  3. Gedo237,138
    -28.8%
  4. Juba Hoose205,648
    +1.0%
  5. Mudug133,198
    -4.8%
  6. Woqooyi Galbeed117,420
    -10.3%
  7. Bari116,560
    +16.9%
  8. Hiraan108,517
    -9.7%
  9. Galgaduud98,786
    +80.6%
  10. Bakool81,132
    -30.8%
  11. Shabelle Hoose79,260
    -38.1%
  12. Togdheer67,380
    -55.5%
  13. Nugaal64,730
    +11.7%
  14. Shabelle Dhexe56,088
    -56.9%
  15. Awdal29,310
    +100.5%
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
30 Sept 2024
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Areas assessed in the latest round of this operation, ranked by summed present IDP individuals. Momentum shown alongside is the change from the preceding round.

Known limitations

  • Only areas assessed in the latest round appear. An unassessed area is absent, not zero.
  • Bar length encodes the reported figure only. It carries no information about area size, population or need.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Anomaly signalsMOSAIC-derived

Areas whose latest figure moved unusually relative to their own recent history in this operation. Each signal names the rule that fired and the evidence behind it. A signal is a cue for collection, not a finding.

  • BaySudden surge
    Latest
    774,374
    Baseline
    592,361
    Magnitude
    0.31
    Basis
    4 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or above +30 per cent and the absolute increase is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • GedoAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    237,138
    Baseline
    333,196
    Magnitude
    -0.29
    Basis
    4 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • GalgaduudSudden surge
    Latest
    98,786
    Baseline
    54,693
    Magnitude
    0.81
    Basis
    3 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or above +30 per cent and the absolute increase is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • BakoolAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    81,132
    Baseline
    117,278
    Magnitude
    -0.31
    Basis
    4 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • Shabelle HooseAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    79,260
    Baseline
    128,050
    Magnitude
    -0.38
    Basis
    4 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • TogdheerAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    67,380
    Baseline
    151,335
    Magnitude
    -0.55
    Basis
    3 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • Shabelle DhexeAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    56,088
    Baseline
    130,249
    Magnitude
    -0.57
    Basis
    4 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • AwdalSudden surge
    Latest
    29,310
    Baseline
    14,620
    Magnitude
    1.00
    Basis
    3 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or above +30 per cent and the absolute increase is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • SanaagAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    21,462
    Baseline
    33,065
    Magnitude
    -0.35
    Basis
    3 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

  • SoolAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    12,900
    Baseline
    71,721
    Magnitude
    -0.82
    Basis
    3 obs, moderate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Between three and five observations. Treat the historical comparison as indicative only.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
2021-03-30 to 2024-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Transparent statistical rules applied to each area's own trailing series within the operation. No model is fitted and no learned parameters are used.

Known limitations

  • An anomaly can be produced by a change in assessment coverage or method rather than by population movement.
  • Areas with short histories are flagged as low quality because normal variation cannot be characterised.
  • The public API supplies no adjacency graph, so no claim of spatial contiguity is made.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Geographic concentrationMOSAIC-derived

Displacement is comparatively dispersed across 17 assessed units, with 63.4 per cent in the largest 3.

Largest areas by share of national present IDPs
AreaPresent IDPsShare
Banadir1,058,17732.4%
Bay774,37423.7%
Gedo237,1387.3%

Normalised concentration index: 0.128 on a zero-to-one scale across 17 assessed areas.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
30 Sept 2024
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Concentration is computed over the administrative units reported in the selected round of the selected DTM operation. It uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of unit shares, normalised so that zero is an even distribution across assessed units and one is total concentration in a single unit. Units not assessed in the round are absent from the calculation, so a narrowing of assessment coverage will raise measured concentration without any population movement.

Known limitations

  • Concentration rises mechanically when assessment coverage narrows, with no population movement required.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Coverage and confidenceMOSAIC-derived

What the observation process supports, stated separately from what the figures say.

Assessed areas, latest
17
Assessed areas, baseline
17
Rounds in operation
4
Median round interval
307 days
  • The most recent assessment in this operation is more than a year old. Treat every derived indicator as historical rather than current.

Confidence derivation

The change is usable but qualified. At least one comparability or recency condition is not met.

  • −25: Latest assessment is more than a year old
  • −8: Between three and five observations of this unit in the operation
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
2021-03-30 to 2024-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
MOSAIC confidence describes how well a change is grounded in comparable DTM observations. It begins at 100 and applies fixed deductions for missing baselines, non-consecutive rounds, coverage changes, short unit histories and assessment age. It is a statement about data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

Known limitations

  • Confidence describes data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Recorded displacement reason, latest round

Taken directly from the DTM records. This is a source field, not a MOSAIC classification.

Present IDPs by recorded displacement reason
ReasonPresent IDPsShare
Conflict1,596,59548.9%
Natural disaster1,340,21641.1%
Other reason325,26910.0%
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Somalia - Countrywide Monitoring
Reporting period
30 Sept 2024
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
The displacementReason field on each source row, summed over the latest round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Reason is recorded at assessment. It reflects the reason as reported, and may not capture compound or sequential causes.

Generate analyst brief

A deterministic, template-generated brief covering situation snapshot, key changes, trend, concentration, anomalies, analytic questions, information gaps, collection priorities and methodological caveats. No generative model is in the path, so the same data always produces the same brief.

Markdown briefJSONUnit-level CSV