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MOSAIC

Country intelligence page

Nigeria NGA

Operation North Central and North West at Admin 1. Every comparison below is confined to this operation, because operations differ in geographic scope, cadence and method and are not additive.

Present IDPs, latest round
1,378,124
Round 18, 31 Oct 2025
Baseline round
1,252,042
Round 17, 31 May 2025
Absolute changeMOSAIC-derived
+126,082
Difference in present IDPs between the two rounds
Displacement momentumMOSAIC-derived
+10.1%
Increasing displacement
Assessment recency
308d
Reported within 365 days
Data confidenceMOSAIC-derived
88
high confidence in comparability, out of 100

What changed?MOSAIC-derived

Comparing round 18 (31 Oct 2025) with round 17 (31 May 2025) inside the North Central and North West operation. Thresholds are MOSAIC monitoring settings, not IOM categories.

Areas at or above +5 per cent momentum

Areas in Nigeria ranked by threshold crossings between the two most recent comparable DTM rounds
AreaLatestBaselineChangeMomentumComparabilityAnalysis
Sokoto181,52688,562+92,964+105.0%Comparable
Zamfara279,224204,576+74,648+36.5%
  • Built from a single source record
Niger45,56441,126+4,438+10.8%Comparable
Kano11,24710,496+751+7.2%Comparable
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
31 May 2025 to 31 Oct 2025
Assessment round
Round 18 compared with round 17
Retrieved
2026-09-04T01:34:32.036Z
Calculation
Rows are summed to a present-IDP figure per area and round, then the latest round is compared with the preceding round of the same operation. Areas present in only one of the two rounds are reported as such and are never treated as zero.

Known limitations

  • An area that disappears between rounds may have ceased to be assessed rather than ceased to host displacement.
  • A newly reported area may be newly affected or newly assessed. The API does not distinguish between these.
  • Threshold bands are MOSAIC monitoring settings and are not calibrated to this country's assessment cadence.
Displacement Momentum is the proportional change in present IDP individuals between an administrative unit's latest comparable DTM assessment round and the preceding round within the same DTM operation. Bands are MOSAIC-defined monitoring thresholds, not IOM classifications. A momentum value is not computed where a baseline is missing or zero.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

National displacement timeline

Present IDPs by assessment round within the North Central and North West operation. Breaks in the line mark non-consecutive round numbers, where an intervening round exists that this series does not include.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
2019-08-30 to 2025-10-31
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Present IDP figures are summed across all disaggregated source rows for each area, then across areas, for every round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Figures may be estimates derived from key informants and secondary sources rather than exact enumeration.
  • Assessment coverage and cadence vary by country and operation, so cross-country comparison of change rates is not supported.
  • A change in a recorded figure may reflect population movement, altered assessment coverage, changed access, or enumeration method, and the API does not distinguish between these.
  • The public API exposes aggregated non-sensitive figures only, and does not carry the full detail of the underlying DTM datasets.

Admin 1 ranking, latest round

Areas ranked by present IDPs reported in the latest round. Bar length is proportional to the largest area.

  1. Benue464,543
    -3.2%
  2. Zamfara279,224
    +36.5%
  3. Katsina206,071
    -12.6%
  4. Sokoto181,526
    +105.0%
  5. Kaduna115,466
    +4.2%
  6. Niger45,564
    +10.8%
  7. Plateau45,212
    -7.3%
  8. Nasarawa26,760
    +0.3%
  9. Kano11,247
    +7.2%
  10. Kogi2,511
    -50.1%
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
31 Oct 2025
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Areas assessed in the latest round of this operation, ranked by summed present IDP individuals. Momentum shown alongside is the change from the preceding round.

Known limitations

  • Only areas assessed in the latest round appear. An unassessed area is absent, not zero.
  • Bar length encodes the reported figure only. It carries no information about area size, population or need.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Anomaly signalsMOSAIC-derived

Areas whose latest figure moved unusually relative to their own recent history in this operation. Each signal names the rule that fired and the evidence behind it. A signal is a cue for collection, not a finding.

  • ZamfaraSudden surge
    Latest
    279,224
    Baseline
    204,576
    Magnitude
    0.36
    Basis
    17 obs, adequate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or above +30 per cent and the absolute increase is at least 1,000 individuals. Six or more observations available for the historical comparison.

  • ZamfaraDeviation from recent trend
    Latest
    279,224
    Baseline
    204,576
    Magnitude
    3.08
    Basis
    17 obs, adequate

    The latest change exceeds 3.0 times the median absolute change of the prior rounds in the comparison window, requiring at least four prior observations and a non-zero median. Six or more observations available for the historical comparison.

  • SokotoSudden surge
    Latest
    181,526
    Baseline
    88,562
    Magnitude
    1.05
    Basis
    17 obs, adequate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or above +30 per cent and the absolute increase is at least 1,000 individuals. Six or more observations available for the historical comparison.

  • SokotoDeviation from recent trend
    Latest
    181,526
    Baseline
    88,562
    Magnitude
    5.85
    Basis
    17 obs, adequate

    The latest change exceeds 3.0 times the median absolute change of the prior rounds in the comparison window, requiring at least four prior observations and a non-zero median. Six or more observations available for the historical comparison.

  • KogiAbrupt decrease
    Latest
    2,511
    Baseline
    5,033
    Magnitude
    -0.50
    Basis
    6 obs, adequate

    Latest round-to-round change is at or below -25 per cent and the absolute decrease is at least 1,000 individuals. Six or more observations available for the historical comparison.

  • TarabaNewly observed location
    Latest
    4,404
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    4404.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • BauchiNewly observed location
    Latest
    2,149
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    2149.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • Cross RiverNewly observed location
    Latest
    187
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    187.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • JigawaNewly observed location
    Latest
    162
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    162.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
2019-08-30 to 2025-10-31
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Transparent statistical rules applied to each area's own trailing series within the operation. No model is fitted and no learned parameters are used.

Known limitations

  • An anomaly can be produced by a change in assessment coverage or method rather than by population movement.
  • Areas with short histories are flagged as low quality because normal variation cannot be characterised.
  • The public API supplies no adjacency graph, so no claim of spatial contiguity is made.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Geographic concentrationMOSAIC-derived

Displacement is comparatively dispersed across 10 assessed units, with 68.9 per cent in the largest 3.

Largest areas by share of national present IDPs
AreaPresent IDPsShare
Benue464,54333.7%
Zamfara279,22420.3%
Katsina206,07115.0%

Normalised concentration index: 0.116 on a zero-to-one scale across 10 assessed areas.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
31 Oct 2025
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
Concentration is computed over the administrative units reported in the selected round of the selected DTM operation. It uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of unit shares, normalised so that zero is an even distribution across assessed units and one is total concentration in a single unit. Units not assessed in the round are absent from the calculation, so a narrowing of assessment coverage will raise measured concentration without any population movement.

Known limitations

  • Concentration rises mechanically when assessment coverage narrows, with no population movement required.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Coverage and confidenceMOSAIC-derived

What the observation process supports, stated separately from what the figures say.

Assessed areas, latest
10
Assessed areas, baseline
10
Rounds in operation
17
Median round interval
122 days

Confidence derivation

The change rests on two comparable consecutive rounds within one operation, with stable assessment coverage and a recent reporting date.

  • −12: Latest assessment is between six months and a year old
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
2019-08-30 to 2025-10-31
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
MOSAIC confidence describes how well a change is grounded in comparable DTM observations. It begins at 100 and applies fixed deductions for missing baselines, non-consecutive rounds, coverage changes, short unit histories and assessment age. It is a statement about data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

Known limitations

  • Confidence describes data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Recorded displacement reason, latest round

Taken directly from the DTM records. This is a source field, not a MOSAIC classification.

Present IDPs by recorded displacement reason
ReasonPresent IDPsShare
Conflict/violence1,336,93797.0%
Natural disaster41,1873.0%
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
North Central and North West
Reporting period
31 Oct 2025
Assessment round
Round 18
Retrieved
2026-09-04 01:34 UTC
Calculation
The displacementReason field on each source row, summed over the latest round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Reason is recorded at assessment. It reflects the reason as reported, and may not capture compound or sequential causes.

Generate analyst brief

A deterministic, template-generated brief covering situation snapshot, key changes, trend, concentration, anomalies, analytic questions, information gaps, collection priorities and methodological caveats. No generative model is in the path, so the same data always produces the same brief.

Markdown briefJSONUnit-level CSV