Skip to main content
MOSAIC

Country intelligence page

Ecuador ECU

Operation Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas at Admin 1. Every comparison below is confined to this operation, because operations differ in geographic scope, cadence and method and are not additive.

Present IDPs, latest round
407,610
Round 3, 30 Sept 2025
Baseline round
Not reported
No comparable previous round
Absolute changeMOSAIC-derived
n/a
Difference in present IDPs between the two rounds
Displacement momentumMOSAIC-derived
Not reported
Not computable
Assessment recency
390d
Latest report older than 365 days
Data confidenceMOSAIC-derived
0
low confidence in comparability, out of 100

Comparability flags on this comparison

  • No comparable previous round

What changed?MOSAIC-derived

No previous round is available in this operation, so no comparison can be made. Every area below is reported without a baseline.

Areas without a usable baseline

Areas in Ecuador ranked by not comparable between the two most recent comparable DTM rounds
AreaLatestBaselineChangeMomentumComparabilityAnalysis
Guayas150,040Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Pichincha69,539Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Manabi57,741Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
El Oro21,978Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Imbabura14,256Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Azuay13,643Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Loja12,903Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Sucumbios10,689Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Orellana9,779Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Tungurahua9,199Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Esmeraldas7,356Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Los Rios7,154Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
  • Built from a single source record
Chimborazo6,796Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Pastaza5,582Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Cañar4,156Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
Carchi2,542Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
  • Built from a single source record
Cotopaxi2,357Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
  • Built from a single source record
Napo1,900Not reportedn/aNot reported
  • No comparable previous round
  • Built from a single source record
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
Not stated to 30 Sept 2025
Assessment round
Round 3 compared with round none
Retrieved
2026-10-25T20:07:10.803Z
Calculation
Rows are summed to a present-IDP figure per area and round, then the latest round is compared with the preceding round of the same operation. Areas present in only one of the two rounds are reported as such and are never treated as zero.

Known limitations

  • An area that disappears between rounds may have ceased to be assessed rather than ceased to host displacement.
  • A newly reported area may be newly affected or newly assessed. The API does not distinguish between these.
  • Threshold bands are MOSAIC monitoring settings and are not calibrated to this country's assessment cadence.
Displacement Momentum is the proportional change in present IDP individuals between an administrative unit's latest comparable DTM assessment round and the preceding round within the same DTM operation. Bands are MOSAIC-defined monitoring thresholds, not IOM classifications. A momentum value is not computed where a baseline is missing or zero.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

National displacement timeline

Present IDPs by assessment round within the Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas operation. Breaks in the line mark non-consecutive round numbers, where an intervening round exists that this series does not include.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
2025-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
Present IDP figures are summed across all disaggregated source rows for each area, then across areas, for every round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Figures may be estimates derived from key informants and secondary sources rather than exact enumeration.
  • Assessment coverage and cadence vary by country and operation, so cross-country comparison of change rates is not supported.
  • A change in a recorded figure may reflect population movement, altered assessment coverage, changed access, or enumeration method, and the API does not distinguish between these.
  • The public API exposes aggregated non-sensitive figures only, and does not carry the full detail of the underlying DTM datasets.

Admin 1 ranking, latest round

Areas ranked by present IDPs reported in the latest round. Bar length is proportional to the largest area.

  1. Guayas150,040
    Not reported
  2. Pichincha69,539
    Not reported
  3. Manabi57,741
    Not reported
  4. El Oro21,978
    Not reported
  5. Imbabura14,256
    Not reported
  6. Azuay13,643
    Not reported
  7. Loja12,903
    Not reported
  8. Sucumbios10,689
    Not reported
  9. Orellana9,779
    Not reported
  10. Tungurahua9,199
    Not reported
  11. Esmeraldas7,356
    Not reported
  12. Los Rios7,154
    Not reported
  13. Chimborazo6,796
    Not reported
  14. Pastaza5,582
    Not reported
  15. Cañar4,156
    Not reported
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
30 Sept 2025
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
Areas assessed in the latest round of this operation, ranked by summed present IDP individuals. Momentum shown alongside is the change from the preceding round.

Known limitations

  • Only areas assessed in the latest round appear. An unassessed area is absent, not zero.
  • Bar length encodes the reported figure only. It carries no information about area size, population or need.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Anomaly signalsMOSAIC-derived

Areas whose latest figure moved unusually relative to their own recent history in this operation. Each signal names the rule that fired and the evidence behind it. A signal is a cue for collection, not a finding.

  • GuayasNewly observed location
    Latest
    150,040
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    150040.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • PichinchaNewly observed location
    Latest
    69,539
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    69539.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • ManabiNewly observed location
    Latest
    57,741
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    57741.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • El OroNewly observed location
    Latest
    21,978
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    21978.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • ImbaburaNewly observed location
    Latest
    14,256
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    14256.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • AzuayNewly observed location
    Latest
    13,643
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    13643.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • LojaNewly observed location
    Latest
    12,903
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    12903.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • SucumbiosNewly observed location
    Latest
    10,689
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    10689.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • OrellanaNewly observed location
    Latest
    9,779
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    9779.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • TungurahuaNewly observed location
    Latest
    9,199
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    9199.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • EsmeraldasNewly observed location
    Latest
    7,356
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    7356.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

  • Los RiosNewly observed location
    Latest
    7,154
    Baseline
    Not reported
    Magnitude
    7154.00
    Basis
    1 obs, low

    The unit reports displacement in the latest round and has no prior observation in this operation. Fewer than three observations in this operation. The historical baseline is too short to characterise normal variation.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
2025-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
Transparent statistical rules applied to each area's own trailing series within the operation. No model is fitted and no learned parameters are used.

Known limitations

  • An anomaly can be produced by a change in assessment coverage or method rather than by population movement.
  • Areas with short histories are flagged as low quality because normal variation cannot be characterised.
  • The public API supplies no adjacency graph, so no claim of spatial contiguity is made.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Geographic concentrationMOSAIC-derived

Displacement is comparatively dispersed across 18 assessed units, with 68.0 per cent in the largest 3.

Largest areas by share of national present IDPs
AreaPresent IDPsShare
Guayas150,04036.8%
Pichincha69,53917.1%
Manabi57,74114.2%

Normalised concentration index: 0.147 on a zero-to-one scale across 18 assessed areas.

Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
30 Sept 2025
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
Concentration is computed over the administrative units reported in the selected round of the selected DTM operation. It uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of unit shares, normalised so that zero is an even distribution across assessed units and one is total concentration in a single unit. Units not assessed in the round are absent from the calculation, so a narrowing of assessment coverage will raise measured concentration without any population movement.

Known limitations

  • Concentration rises mechanically when assessment coverage narrows, with no population movement required.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Coverage and confidenceMOSAIC-derived

What the observation process supports, stated separately from what the figures say.

Assessed areas, latest
18
Assessed areas, baseline
n/a
Rounds in operation
1
Median round interval
n/a
  • The most recent assessment in this operation is more than a year old. Treat every derived indicator as historical rather than current.
  • Only one round is available, so no round-to-round comparison is possible.

Confidence derivation

The change should not be treated as a monitoring signal on its own. Comparability, coverage or recency conditions materially limit interpretation.

  • −45: No comparable previous round in this operation
  • −25: Latest assessment is more than a year old
  • −20: Fewer than three observations of this unit in the operation
  • −10: Operation has fewer than three rounds of history
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
2025-09-30
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
MOSAIC confidence describes how well a change is grounded in comparable DTM observations. It begins at 100 and applies fixed deductions for missing baselines, non-consecutive rounds, coverage changes, short unit histories and assessment age. It is a statement about data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

Known limitations

  • Confidence describes data comparability and recency only. It carries no claim about the cause of a change.

MOSAIC-derived indicator. Not an IOM classification.

Recorded displacement reason, latest round

Taken directly from the DTM records. This is a source field, not a MOSAIC classification.

Present IDPs by recorded displacement reason
ReasonPresent IDPsShare
Conflict196,25048.1%
Natural disaster158,84239.0%
No reason for displacement reported52,51812.9%
Methodology and provenance
Source
International Organization for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). Public API v3.
Endpoint
/v3/displacement/admin1
Geographic level
Admin 1
Operation
Migration Flows from Venezuela to the Americas
Reporting period
30 Sept 2025
Assessment round
Round 3
Retrieved
2026-10-25 20:07 UTC
Calculation
The displacementReason field on each source row, summed over the latest round of the selected operation.

Known limitations

  • Reason is recorded at assessment. It reflects the reason as reported, and may not capture compound or sequential causes.

Generate analyst brief

A deterministic, template-generated brief covering situation snapshot, key changes, trend, concentration, anomalies, analytic questions, information gaps, collection priorities and methodological caveats. No generative model is in the path, so the same data always produces the same brief.

Markdown briefJSONUnit-level CSV